Sagoh
By Tom Ellison (Center for Climate and Security) and Phil Newell (Climate Action Against Disinformation)
The summer of 2026 will be remembered not only for its record-breaking temperatures and catastrophic natural disasters but also for a darker, more insidious phenomenon: the weaponization of climate chaos. From the drowning landscapes of Nepal to the scorched forests of Southern Europe and the heat-parched cities of North America, the physical reality of the climate crisis is undeniable. Yet, in the digital sphere, that reality is being actively dismantled.
We are witnessing a dangerous collision between climate change and an information crisis. As fossil-fueled weather events intensify, they are being met with a coordinated barrage of climate denial, AI-generated "slop," political propaganda, and orchestrated rage-bait. This intersection—what experts call the "information security" dimension of climate change—is no longer a fringe concern; it is a fundamental threat to public safety, democratic stability, and the global capacity to act on the most pressing issue of our time.
The Anatomy of the Information Crisis
When disaster strikes, the immediate aftermath is typically defined by a desperate need for clear, actionable data. Today, however, that vacuum is increasingly filled by disinformation, misinformation, and malinformation.
While researchers distinguish between these terms—disinformation being the intentional spread of falsehoods, misinformation the accidental sharing of them, and malinformation the use of truthful information to cause harm—the distinction matters less to the victim of a disaster than the impact. Whether it is a conspiracy theory blaming a "land-clearing plot" for wildfires or a politically motivated narrative attributing floods to foreign actors, the goal is consistent: to distract, delay, and divide.
The Chronology of Modern Climate Denial
The landscape of climate denial has shifted dramatically over the last decade. It has evolved from simple "the planet isn’t warming" rhetoric into a more sophisticated, multi-layered information war:
- 2020–2022 (The "Economic Anxiety" Phase): Focus shifted toward highlighting the costs of the energy transition, framing green policies as elitist and harmful to the working class.
- 2023–2024 (The Polarization Phase): During events like Hurricane Helene, researchers noted a surge in xenophobic rhetoric and false claims about government relief efforts. The goal was to paint public agencies like FEMA as hostile, eroding trust in essential infrastructure.
- 2025–2026 (The AI & Deepfake Phase): The rise of generative AI has enabled the mass production of "AI slop"—hyper-realistic images of non-existent disasters and automated bot-driven narratives that flood social media feeds within minutes of a real-world event.
The Drivers: Money, Power, and Algorithms
Why is the information environment becoming so toxic? The answer lies in the convergence of three powerful, self-reinforcing interests: Big Oil, Big Tech, and authoritarian political actors.
Big Oil and the Obstructionist Playbook
The fossil fuel industry has spent decades funding campaigns designed to manufacture doubt regarding climate science. This is not a historical relic; it is an active, ongoing strategy. By creating a fog of uncertainty, these entities protect their bottom line, stalling regulatory action that would threaten their core business models.
Recent research indicates a deepening alliance between "Big Oil" and "Big Tech." While fossil fuel companies provide the ideological framework for delay, the platforms themselves provide the infrastructure for the rapid, algorithmic spread of that doubt.
The Hijacking of Social Media
Social media was once envisioned as a town square. Today, it functions more like a casino, where "engagement" is the only currency that matters. Addictive algorithms are designed to favor content that triggers strong emotional responses—rage, fear, and indignation.
Because climate disasters are inherently emotional, they are the perfect fodder for these algorithms. Dishonest influencers, state-sponsored bots, and bad-faith actors have learned that by posting inflammatory, false, or misleading content, they can "hack" the algorithm, ensuring their message reaches millions. This leaves the public and policymakers struggling to locate reliable information during the very moments they need it most.
Ideological Exploitation
Climate change is increasingly being treated as a front in the global "culture war." Far-right political movements have adopted climate skepticism as a badge of identity. By framing environmentalism as a "woke" or "foreign" imposition, they effectively shield their constituents from the reality of the crisis.
Furthermore, authoritarian regimes have begun using extreme weather as a wedge. By sponsoring "disinfluencers" in other countries, they create internal friction, weaken the social fabric, and undermine the ability of democratic nations to form a coherent response to the climate threat.
Supporting Data: The Cost of Confusion
The implications of this information crisis are profound. A 2026 analysis by the Center for Climate and Security suggests that communities subjected to high levels of disaster-related disinformation show a significantly lower trust in emergency services.
- Public Safety: When citizens are fed conspiracy theories about evacuation orders or the nature of a disaster, they are less likely to follow safety protocols, leading to higher casualty rates.
- Resource Depletion: Public agencies are forced to divert limited resources from disaster response to "myth-busting"—the exhausting task of debunking viral falsehoods in real-time.
- Policy Stagnation: By framing climate action as an existential threat to national sovereignty or personal freedom, disinformation campaigns successfully gridlock legislative efforts, ensuring that adaptation and mitigation measures are perpetually deferred.
Official Responses and the Path to Resilience
The international community is beginning to recognize that information integrity is as vital to national security as physical infrastructure.
The United Nations has recently elevated "Information Integrity on Climate Change" to a priority, urging member states to protect the flow of accurate data during emergencies. Similarly, climate research institutes are collaborating with meteorologists and local governments to establish "pre-bunking" protocols—preparing the public for common narratives of deception before a disaster occurs.
A Toolkit for the Public
The "Weathering Extremes" toolkit, developed by Jennie King of the CCS, outlines several practical steps for building individual and community resilience:
- Verify the Source: In the immediate aftermath of an event, rely on official government meteorological agencies and verified local news organizations. If an account is anonymous and posting highly charged content, treat it with extreme skepticism.
- Pause Before Sharing: Misinformation thrives on the "share" button. Before amplifying a post, ask: Does this trigger a strong emotional response? If yes, it is likely designed to be manipulative.
- Support Local News: Local journalists remain the most reliable source of information during a crisis. Supporting their efforts helps preserve the "ground truth" that national social media influencers often try to obscure.
- Demand Algorithmic Transparency: Citizens should advocate for platforms to prioritize authoritative information during state-of-emergency events, rather than prioritizing content that simply drives engagement.
Implications: The Future of Climate Security
We must accept that we live in a world where climate change and information warfare are two sides of the same coin. The physical impacts of a warming planet—rising sea levels, shifting agricultural zones, and more violent storms—are being mirrored by the digital erosion of our shared reality.
Reliable information is, in every sense of the word, critical infrastructure. Just as we invest in sea walls, fire-resistant building codes, and early warning systems, we must invest in the cognitive resilience of our societies. If we cannot agree on the basic facts of the crisis, we will never find the consensus required to solve it.
The challenge of the next decade is not merely to "fix the climate" or "fix the internet," but to ensure that the two goals are pursued in tandem. We are at a crossroads: we can either continue to be divided by a manufactured information crisis, or we can build the media literacy and regulatory safeguards necessary to face the physical realities of the future with our eyes wide open. The survival of our communities, our democratic processes, and our planet depends on the choice we make today.
Nila Kartika Wati
Dwi Wanna
