Siti Muinah
Introduction: Nine Years of Exile
August 25, 2026, marks a grim anniversary: nine years since the catastrophic escalation of violence that forced nearly one million Rohingya to flee their ancestral homes in Myanmar. Today, the sprawling, congested camps of Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh house over 1.3 million refugees, serving as a testament to one of the most protracted and neglected crises of the 21st century.
While the world frequently categorizes the Rohingya plight as a humanitarian emergency, this framing is incomplete and, ultimately, dangerous. To view the Rohingya crisis solely through the lens of food rations, shelter, and medical aid is to treat the symptoms while ignoring the terminal illness of systemic political exclusion. The Rohingya are not merely victims of a natural disaster; they are victims of a deliberate, decades-long policy of erasure. Sustainable peace will remain a phantom until the international community moves beyond charity to address the fundamental lack of citizenship and political agency for the Rohingya people.
A History of Cycles: The Failure of Past Repatriations
To understand the current impasse, one must look at the history of failed returns. The 2017 genocide was not an isolated event; it was the apex of a cycle that has repeated itself for nearly half a century.
- 1978: Approximately 200,000 Rohingya fled to Bangladesh under Operation Nagamin (Dragon King), an army campaign designed to identify and expel "illegal immigrants." Most were subsequently forced back into a Myanmar that viewed them as outsiders.
- 1991–1992: Roughly 250,000 Rohingya sought refuge in Bangladesh following renewed military persecution. Again, the international community pushed for repatriation without addressing the underlying lack of rights.
- 2017: The military’s "clearance operations" triggered the largest exodus in history.
In every instance, the fundamental structural issues—denial of citizenship, lack of legal protection, and systemic discrimination—remained untouched. Repatriation was treated as a box to be checked, not a process to be secured. By sending refugees back to the same volatile environment that forced their flight, the international community effectively set the stage for the next exodus. Each turn of this cycle has only deepened the trauma and eroded the hope of a permanent home.
The Mirage of Humanitarianism
International aid organizations and donor nations have done the essential work of keeping the Rohingya alive, yet this support is increasingly precarious. As global attention wanes and funding cycles tighten, the narrative has shifted toward "self-reliance" for refugees trapped in camps.
However, calling for self-reliance in a context where the population is legally barred from working, denied freedom of movement, and excluded from formal education is a cruel contradiction. It is, as many refugees aptly describe, "asking a bound person to swim." Without the right to labor or move, refugees are trapped in a state of suspended animation. Humanitarian aid serves as a life-support system, but it cannot substitute for the oxygen of political rights. By focusing only on the "crisis" of hunger, the international community inadvertently relieves the pressure on the Myanmar military junta, allowing them to escape accountability for the political crimes that caused the displacement.
The Geopolitics of Exclusion: Why the Homeland Remains Unreachable
The possibility of a safe return is currently paralyzed by a dual threat: the entrenched military junta and the rise of various armed groups, including the Arakan Army, which now wield control over large swaths of Rakhine State.
The core of the issue lies in the 1982 Citizenship Law, a document that stripped the Rohingya of their nationality and institutionalized their status as stateless persons. This same mechanism of exclusion is what allowed the military to escalate its violence against the broader Burmese population following the 2021 coup. The "Spring Revolution," which has seen diverse ethnic groups unite against military tyranny, offers a glimmer of hope. For the first time, there is a collective recognition that the fate of the Rohingya and the fate of a democratic, federalist Myanmar are inextricably linked.
A permanent return is not merely about moving people back across a border; it is about returning them to a country that recognizes their citizenship, protects their rights, and allows for their political participation.
The Path Forward: Concrete Actions for Change
If the international community is to move from managing decline to fostering a solution, four pillars of action must be implemented:
1. Empowering Economic Autonomy
Donor nations must stop viewing the prohibition of work as a permanent feature of the camps. Allowing refugees to work, trade, and provide for their families is not just a humanitarian necessity; it is a prerequisite for dignity. Enabling the Rohingya to build their own economic base reduces dependency and prepares individuals for life beyond the camp, whether in resettlement or eventual return.
2. Political Preparation and Education
Repatriation cannot be a blind leap of faith. The Rohingya community must be allowed to form political representative bodies within the camps. Furthermore, the education of Rohingya children must be prioritized, specifically through the use of the Burmese curriculum. If children are to return to their homeland, they must be fluent in the language and systems of their home country, ensuring they are not perpetual outsiders in their own land.
3. Sustained Humanitarian Support
Until a safe, voluntary, and dignified return is possible, the international community has an obligation to maintain support. Food rations, medical care, and education must not be used as bargaining chips. The World Food Program and other agencies require consistent, long-term funding to prevent further deterioration of the humanitarian situation in Cox’s Bazar.
4. ASEAN and Regional Accountability
The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) must transition from passive diplomacy to active political intervention. ASEAN member states hold the most leverage over the Myanmar junta and must cease all engagement that provides the regime with legitimacy. By leveraging regional influence, ASEAN can push for a political dialogue that includes the Rohingya as stakeholders, rather than as subjects to be negotiated away.
Conclusion: Ending the Exile
The statelessness of the Rohingya is not an accident of geography; it is a deliberate political construct designed by the Myanmar military to consolidate power. The human trafficking, sexual violence, and systemic abuse experienced by those in the camps are the direct consequences of this statelessness.
The international community must acknowledge that the Rohingya will continue to be a "problem to be managed" until they are treated as a "people to be empowered." The goal should not be to simply return the refugees to a place where they are not citizens; it is to transform the state itself so that it recognizes them as citizens. Until that political reckoning takes place, the world will continue to mark the anniversary of the genocide, year after year, with nothing to offer but pity—an offering that is as hollow as it is insufficient.
Reynand Wu
Layla Zulfa
